Although not the first of their kind, the ballistic-missile attacks on three bulk carriers in the Red Sea by Yemen Houthi rebels on December 3rd marked a significant escalation in the risk to commercial shipping in the region.
The USS Carney, an American Arleigh Burke class guided-missile destroyer, shot down several unmanned aerial vehicles (uavs) that appeared to be heading in its direction while it was sailing to assist the damaged ships.
Fortunately the attacks, which were carried out at different times during the day, caused no injuries and relatively minor damage to the three ships, the Unity Explorer, the Number 9 and the Sophie II.
America’s Central Command said that it was considering “appropriate responses” to the attacks which, as well as threatening international trade and maritime security, had jeopardized the lives of crews from several countries. It added that although the attacks had been launched by the Houthis, they had been “fully enabled by Iran”.
The careful wording reflects the reality that although the missiles were undoubtedly supplied by Iran and the attacks would have been welcomed in Tehran, the Houthis may well have been acting off their own bat. What seems certain is that more such attacks are coming.
Emile Hokayem, an expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (iiss) on how Iran uses its proxies in the region, says that the attacks represent a strategic opportunity for the Houthis in a number of ways.
The first is that by linking them with Israel’s assault on Hamas in Gaza, the Houthis can improve their standing in the Arab world, where the Palestinian cause remains popular and emotions are now running high. The attacks allow the Houthis to demonstrate that they are, as they have always claimed, on the side of the oppressed and moreover that they can hit targets other than in Saudi Arabia.
The second is that they send out a clear signal that the Red Sea is now, by extension, a legitimate theatre for the struggle against Israel and that the Houthis are willing to go after American warships and commercial shipping that may have some relationship with Israel, however tenuous. The sophistication of the attacks also shows that the Houthis are very far from being the kind of raggle-taggle force that they have sometimes been seen as.
Fabian Hinz, a specialist in Middle Eastern missile and uav forces, also of the iiss, says that the Houthis have received a huge number of anti-ship missiles and drones from Iran. They have also seized and adapted some from Yemen’s army. The Houthis have at least ten different anti-ship missiles in their arsenal, including sea-skimming Exocet-type missiles based on Chinese designs, such as the al-Mandab 1 and 2, which home in on radar signals and have a range of about 120km. They also have the Quds z-0 and Sayad cruise missiles, with ranges of up to 800km and radar, infrared or electric-optical seekers to home in on targets.
In addition, the Houthis also have an arsenal of anti-ship ballistic missiles that runs from short-range locally produced systems to longer-range and much heavier missiles such as the Asef and the solid-propellant Tankil (based respectively on the Iranian Fateh and Raad-500 missiles, which carry a 300kg warhead and are designed to hit a warship up to 500km away). Because of the limited damage reported from the latest attacks it seems likely that smaller missiles were used.
Indeed, such are the Houthis’ capabilities and such is the size and diversity of their anti-shipping-missile inventory that they may well have the potential to do in the Bab al-Mandab Strait, which runs past the Yemeni coast and is the choke point of the Red Sea, what Iran has often threatened to do in the Strait of Hormuz. Although Yemen is not a great location from which to attack Israel, it is perfect for attacking Red Sea shipping.
Beefing up this arsenal are a variety of Iranian attack drones, including the Shahed 136 that Russia is using against Ukraine. As far as those shot down by the Carney are concerned, Mr Hinz thinks that these were probably intelligence and surveillance uavs that the Iranians have cloned from America’s rq-21. In addition to aerial drones, the Houthis also have naval drones and mine-laying capabilities.
It is doubtful whether American warships in the region are at much risk from Houthi missiles. Their defences are simply too good, although a lucky strike from a salvoed attack can never be discounted. But it is another matter as to whether these ships would offer much protection to commercial shipping, should the Houthis increase the frequency and severity of their attacks. In those circumstances, there would be increasing pressure on the Americans to go after launch and missile-storage sites in Yemen, assuming they could be found.
In a speech over the weekend, Leon Panetta, a former American defence secretary, called for a more aggressive approach towards Iran’s proxies. Yet, as Mr Hokayem says, the last thing the White House will want is to be dragged into Yemen’s civil war, which the administration has recently been trying hard to de-escalate. ■
https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2023/12/04/why-yemens-houthis-are-attacking-ships-in-the-red-sea