The Houthis have shown little willingness or ability to accurately distinguish between the ships they target, leaving Washington and its partners with no choice but to doubt the group’s supposed “ceasefire” and keep up the pressure, according to an analysis by two senior fellows at The Washington Institute
Noam Raydan and Farzin Nadimi found that the Houthi promise to halt attacks against non-Israeli vessels has been met with doubt, and several shipping companies and insurance companies are still rightfully cautious.
In examining the 100+ Houthi ship attacks between November 2023 and December 2024, one can readily see that only a narrow subset of vessels have been permitted to transit the Gulf of Aden and the southern Red Sea.
They added that the Houthis will continue using the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab as strategic chokepoints to project power and exert leverage in regional conflicts. They can also be expected to establish a maritime traffic center to monitor and interrogate all passing vessels, similar to the one operated by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in the Strait of Hormuz.
Moreover, given the Houthis’ history of using ceasefires to regroup and rearm, they may intend to exploit the current pause in hostilities to prepare for future offensives. And Iran can be expected to help them further expand their military industries and mass-produce advanced weapon designs more efficiently and independently. Even the group’s existing weapons pose a severe risk to merchant and military vessels at considerable distances, as far away as the central Red Sea and western Arabian Sea. Its unmanned explosive-laden boats—often guided by GPS or remotely controlled—have been especially challenging to detect and intercept, adding another layer of complexity to maritime security operations in the area. Such weapons also pose risks to critical infrastructure in U.S. regional partner states.
Ther recommended that to mitigate the Houthis threats, the United States and its partners must take firm steps to maintain a coordinated and constant naval presence aimed at preserving freedom of navigation in the region, to Invest in advanced detection, intelligence-sharing, and countermeasure technologies, Impose stringent sanctions on Iran and other entities involved in transferring weapons and resources to the Houthis, Create new coalitions involving Red Sea nations such as Egypt, Eritrea, Saudi Arabia, and Sudan to coordinate defensive measures and maintain safe passage, and finally they must also build a coalition to sustain diplomatic and economic pressure on Iran, emphasizing that Tehran cease its military support to the Houthis.