The Houthi rebels are grappling with growing domestic unrest within the areas under their control, according to an analysis published by Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED).
In recent months, the Houthis have carried out mass arrests of opposition figures, civil society groups, influencers, and humanitarian workers on charges of “conspiring with the enemy”.
ACLED analysis noticed that nowhere are these dynamics better illustrated than in Ibb governorate, south of Sana'a, the home to nearly 4 million people and hundreds of thousands of internally displaced people.
Once dubbed Yemen’s “hotbed of infighting,” Ibb continues to harbor considerable instability despite efforts by the Houthis to co-opt local elites and avert potential threats.
At a high-level meeting convened in December, Ibb’s Houthi appointee as Governor Abdulwahid Salah admitted the challenges and called on the Houthi rebels leadership to work alongside the local authorities.
Interrogating Houthi repression and political disorder in Ibb serves as a barometer of simmering turmoil in Houthi-controlled areas.
It highlights several patterns found in other governorates, including the repression of political plurality and freedom of opinion, land-related disorder and tribal disputes, and infighting within Houthi ranks.
On a broader scale, the Houthis have carried out an arrest campaign that targeted the Yemeni staff of international organizations. Most arrests occurred around Sanaa, Amran, and Saada, reflecting the Houthis’ perspective on security priorities: while Ibb is viewed as a hotbed of internal dissent, northern strongholds like Saada are seen as potential targets for foreign intelligence activities.
In parallel, intra-tribal disputes appear to be on the rise, with tribal violence against civilians more than tripling compared to the pre-truce period.
Several factors contribute to this unrest. The volatility of the land market and the dire economic situation caused by the war pressure residents into selling valuable land, fuelling competition between families and factions.
ACLED analysis concluded that the future of the Yemen peace process hangs in the balance, shrouded in uncertainty as regional and international dynamics shift unpredictably, adding that the US designation of the Houthis as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) threatens to upend the diplomatic landscape further, seemingly derailing any prospects of an agreement on the UN roadmap. This, in turn, will intensify Houthis suppression of political dissent and internecine competition over increasingly scarce state resources.