The Trump administration’s strikes this month on Houthi rebels military sites are not the first effort to disrupt the ongoing Houthis attacks on shipping in the Red, according to an Op-Ed Published The Lowy Interpreter news website.
The Biden administration launched Operation Prosperity Guardian in December 2023, a multinational effort involving 10 nations to ensure freedom of navigation, targeting the Houthis with strikes and created a multinational naval task force in the Red Sea to protect shipping.
Neither action has been a deterrent – as seen in the Houthis allegedly launching two retaliatory attacks against the US aircraft carrier Harry S. Truman within a few hours of the 16 March strike. “More of the same” will not deliver a different outcome.
Shipping traffic through the Red Sea has decreased by 65 per cent since November 2024, while traffic around the Cape of Good Hope has increased by 70 per cent.
The problem in the current approach, according to The Lowy Interpreter is the lack of deterrence upon, and prevention of, Houthi action.
The Houthis will just keep sending raiding forces, drones and missiles to attack shipping in the area. And the naval task force will continue to try and defeat the attacks.
The naval task force in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden is an example of a downstream problem response. And US and multinational strikes are playing “whack-a-mole”, proving ineffectual in addressing the problem.
Despite the Houthi’s apparent resilience, the situation within Yemen isn’t entirely favourable for them. Their alignment with Iran, combined with their use of acute and structural violence in the areas they control, has made them deeply unpopular.
Schisms inside Yemen, including the presence of resistance groups, offer opportunity. The development of partnerships with local actors to degrade and subvert Houthi control, could present the Houthis with challenges. This would require a change in military approach from kinetic attacks to an unconventional warfare approach.
Iran’s part cannot be ignored. It has been suggested that the degradation of Hezbollah and Hamas leaves the Houthis as a stand-out Iranian proxy actor for action against US and Western interests. But increasingly the Houthis are also seen less as a proxy and more of a “willing partner” as their regional influence grows.
Nonetheless, developing actions and sanctions to reduce Iranian support, and finding ways to create a wedge between Iranian and Houthi interests, will be useful. Concurrently, other putative “supporters”, including China and Russia, should be called out and, where possible, held to account.
The latest US strikes on Houthi targets will likely prove more performative than effective in reducing the instance of attacks on shipping. The latest strikes continue a flawed “downstream problem” response begun during the Biden administration. The Houthi missile threat will only be resolved by “going upstream” and adopting fresh approaches that directly challenge Houthi control and resilience on the ground.