Hopes for an internationally-backed ground offensive in Yemen to dislodge the Houthis, from Yemen’s western coast have been dashed by the group’s unexpected deal with the US earlier this month, brokered by Oman, according to an analysis published by Amwaj.media.
Ibrahim Jalal, the author of the analysis, a Non-Resident Scholar with the Middle East Institute’s (MEI), wrote “After 51 days of confrontation, President Donald Trump announced a halt to US offensive operations against the Houthis in return for a suspension of attacks on vessels in the Red Sea and Bab Al-Mandab Strait—particularly those tied to American interests. The move appears aimed at securing a face-saving shift away from confrontation amid escalating costs for both sides. It also underscores the erratic course of US foreign policy and effectively decouples the Red Sea front from the wider Houthi-Israel conflict.
He added “Ultimately, the arrangement falls far short of a coherent US strategy toward Yemen and risks emboldening the Houthis—both at home and across the region”.
Trump has adopted a somewhat more focused approach to Yemen in comparison with Biden, but his stance still lacks strategy and overall coherence.
US deterrence, Jalal suggested, has yet to be credibly or sustainably restored, as the Houthis continue to show both the capability and intent to carry out further attacks—underscored by their ongoing exchanges of fire with Israel.
The prospect of Washington’s readiness to take more decisive action to safeguard international shipping hinges on two key factors: progress in the Iran-US nuclear talks and Houthi compliance with the May 6 truce. Prior to the Houthi-US arrangement, American strikes on frontline positions in Hodeidah and Ma’rib—as well as on infrastructure near strategic islands like Kamaran—suggested a broader strategy to secure naval supply lines and pressure the Houthis into talks.
While costly, a more decisive US response against the Houthis could prove strategic. Recapturing a more than 300 km (186 miles) stretch of the Tihama region—a narrow coastal plain along the Red Sea from the Saudi border to near the Bab Al-Mandab Strait—would sever the Houthis' western supply artery as well as disrupt arms, fuel, mercenary and drug smuggling routes. It would additionally neutralize threats from naval mines and explosive-laden boats, and confine the group to the highlands—significantly undermining their operational reach and resilience.
Jalal concluded that “While the Trump administration has expressed a desire for lasting peace and stability in the Red Sea, it does not however appear ready for the longer-term engagement that could usher a new era in Yemen. In this context, renewed talks on the UN-sponsored de-escalation roadmap, backed by Oman and Saudi Arabia, appear increasingly likely.