The Southern Transitional Commission’s separatist forces (STC) capture of two large governorates of what comprise nearly half of Yemen’s territory has opened a Pandora’s box of possibilities, most of which point toward renewed conflict, according to an analysis published by The Washington Institute For Near East Policy.
April Longley Alley, the author of the analysis wrote “If Saudi Arabia and the UAE fail to contain the tensions, fighting between Yemeni internationally recognized government factions will likely ensue, including in the Wadi Hadramawt.
Alley, a senior fellow at The Washington Institute, former senior political advisor to the UN’s Yemen envoy (2020-24), and a senior expert for the Gulf States and Yemen at the United States Institute of Peace, thought that “ In the end, any such fighting would benefit the Houthis. With government forces distracted, the group could decide to test its advantage in northeast Marib province (which includes oil fields)”.
Another risk, noticed Alley, is the STC deciding to quickly declare independence, which could spur the Houthis and other northern forces to realign against the group.
So far, STC leaders seem to realize that such a declaration would be met with international isolation, so they have framed and limited their statements and actions accordingly. Yet if Riyadh and the Yemeni government try to isolate the group and leave it with no other off-ramps, it may decide to take that chance.
In short, U.S. allies are on a collision course in Yemen—but this outcome is not inevitable. Timely, sustained, high-level American engagement can help avoid self-inflicted wounds.
To this end, the Trump administration should take a two-pronged approach, urgently bringing Gulf allies together to de-escalate the current crisis while laying the groundwork for wider deals in the longer term: