Hadhramaut governorate, eastern Yemen, stands at a crossroads, with growing tribal autonomy demands, oil revenue disputes, and increasing security risks shaping its future, according to a recent analysis published by SARI Global
SARI, which provides an in-depth analysis of territorial shifts, economic pressures, and operational risks, outlined three potential scenarios in regard to Hadhramout situation and their implications for stability, humanitarian access, and foreign engagement.
The first Scenario, according to SARI Global analysis, is a negotiated revenue-sharing accord and partial stabilization, in which the Yemeni Presidential Leadership Council (PLC) and the Hadhramout Tribal Alliance (HTA) reach an agreement, ensuring equitable distribution of oil revenues.
In exchange, the HTA lifts its ban on supplying Aden’s power grid, resumes full road access for commodities, and scales down its armed checkpoints while halting the push for autonomous rule.
Scenario 2, would be “ Escalation and Deepening Conflict” where rival factions, emboldened by external backing or seeking to secure strategic roads and oil infrastructure, push further inland. The HTA responds by intensifying its blockade, expanding its checkpoints, and possibly cutting off vital fuel or power to southern areas. This escalation disrupts oil production, heightens local grievances, and risks violent confrontations and further pushes calls for autonomy.
Scenario 3: Protracted Stalemate and Fragmentation, where the PLC fails to broker a durable settlement with the HTA, and no faction achieves decisive control. Multiple checkpoints, partial roadblocks, and sporadic clashes become a “new normal.” Smuggling networks flourish in the security vacuum, while extremist cells find safe havens in remote desert stretches.
https://reliefweb.int/report/yemen/hadhramauts-autonomy-struggle-power-resources-and-rivalries