The Iran-backed militia’s disruption of Red Sea shipping is threatening America’s ability to rapidly deploy and supply its forces in the Middle East and beyond, but a combination of logistical workarounds, military measures, and diplomatic efforts may be the answer. According to a recent analysis published by The Washington Institute website (TWI).
The author of the analysis, James E. Shepard, a lieutenant colonel in the United States Air Force, and a Military Fellow at TWI, suggested that the emergence of this threat stems from Iran’s broader strategy of empowering its proxies to deny adversaries freedom of maneuver in the region.
In Yemen, Shepard added, Tehran’s support and guidance have enabled the Houthis to threaten Red Sea traffic and key Saudi ports such as Jeddah and King Abdullah Economic City, advancing the Iranian goal of blocking alternative logistical routes while serving Houthi interests as well. The group’s tactics—which include precision strikes with drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles—are widely attributed to Iranian training, equipment, and other support.
In response to this threat, allied military vessels have continued to traverse the Bab al-Mandab, but many commercial shipping firms have been forced to take the more financially and environmentally costly route around the Cape of Good Hope. As such, Houthi capabilities are impeding the speed that is so crucial to military logistics, raising the question of whether the group has effectively “checkmated” Washington and its partners in the Red Sea. To sustain joint combat operations in wartime, the United States relies on commercial shipping to move up to 80 percent of defense materiel. Beyond the military’s own sealift capabilities, the Defense Department can access privately owned vessels during crises through the Voluntary Intermodal Sealift Agreement, thereby enhancing its flexibility, cutting costs, and ensuring rapid deployment to distant theaters.
This heavy reliance on commercial shipping requires secure supply lines for the unimpeded movement of military logistics during contingency operations. Yet given the U.S. Navy’s finite resources and widespread commitments, not every unarmed shipment can be protected with an escort. Moreover, even escorted ships have occasionally been attacked in the Red Sea, albeit unsuccessfully. A persistent Houthi maritime threat would therefore have serious implications for any contingency operations in which logistics are mission-critical.
Shepard’s analysis concluded “ To maintain logistical access to the region, Washington and its military partners should pursue a twofold approach centered on (1) meeting immediate needs through expedient workarounds and pressure on the Houthis, and (2) seeking long-term answers through a viable strategy to neutralize the threat.
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